Pizza - UK - July 2013


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Mintel

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Although the pizza market has been fairly reliant on commodity inflation and the thriving chilled sector for underlying growth, this report identifies tangible NPD opportunities to potentially encourage stronger volume growth and expand the user base. These include a clear demand among parents for pizza designed for children, strong interest in gluten-free and microwaveable pizzas and – in the wake of the horsemeat scandal – an appetite for British –sourced meat in toppings, peaking among the lower usage yet fast-growing over-65s demographic.
TABLE OF CONTENT

Introduction
Definition
Abbreviations

Executive Summary
The market
Figure 1: Total UK retail value sales of pizza, 2008-18
Figure 2: Total UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2008-18
Segment performance
Figure 3: UK retail value sales of pizza, by sector, 2012
Market factors
Ageing population represents a challenge
Companies, brands and innovation
NPD in the frozen sector rallies in 2012
Chicago Town takes on delivery sector with on-pack claim
Goodfella’s diversifies with extra thin and deep pan launches
Pizzas bearing an ‘economy’ claim triple over 2011-12…
… as launches with no additives or preservatives reach a four-year high
Chicago Town leads Dr. Oetker’s sales success
The consumer
Pizza boasts universal usage among families
Frozen pizza is more widely eaten than chilled, despite negative perceptions
Frozen pizza scores on convenience and value for money
Figure 4: Consumer perceptions of frozen and chilled pizza, April 2013
Three in four pizza users want bases to be as natural as possible
Figure 5: Consumer attitudes towards pizza, April 2013
Untapped opportunities for children’s pizza
Figure 6: Further consumer attitudes towards pizza, April 2013
What we think

Issues in the Market
How can manufacturers improve consumers’ health perceptions of frozen pizza?
Which ideas can the in-home pizza market replicate from the takeaway/delivery sector?
How can consumer interest in food provenance be leveraged by pizza manufacturers?
Which NPD areas can pizza manufacturers explore to reinforce usage among families?

Trend Application
Trend: Extend my Brand
Trend: Patriot Games
Mintel Futures Trend: East Meets West

Market Drivers
Key points
Domino’s continues to record strong growth
Breadmaking wheat prices remain volatile
Figure 7: Monthly UK prices of breadmaking wheat, Jan 2009-Apr 2013
Ageing population represents a challenge
Figure 8: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2012-17

Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
Weaknesses

Who’s Innovating?
Key points
NPD in the frozen sector rallies in 2012
Figure 9: Share of new product launches within the UK pizza market, by format, 2009-12
Figure 10: Share of new product launches within the UK pizza market, by private label vs branded, 2009-12
Morrisons, Tesco and Asda ramp up NPD activity
Figure 11: Share of new product launches within the UK pizza market, by company, 2009-12
Morrisons
Tesco
Chicago Town takes on delivery sector with on-pack claim
Dr. Oetker launches a new deep pan range
Goodfella’s diversifies with extra thin and deep pan launches
Pizzas bearing an ‘economy’ claim triple over 2011-12…
… as launches with no additives or preservatives reach a four year high
NPD in gluten-free, children’s and wholegrain pizza remains limited

Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Commodity price inflation and chilled segment fuels value growth
Figure 12: Total UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, 2008-18
The future of the pizza market…
Market forecasts
Figure 13: Total UK retail value sales of pizza, 2008-18
Figure 14: Total UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2008-18
Forecast methodology

Segment Performance
Key points
Chilled pizza’s value share overtakes frozen
Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of pizza, by sector, 2010-12
Frozen struggles to keep up with chilled growth

Market Share
Key points
Chicago Town leads Dr. Oetker’s sales success
Figure 16: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK frozen pizza market, 2012/13*
Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2011/12* and 2012/13**
Goodfella’s revival continues apace
Own-label struggles
Figure 18: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2012* and 2013**
Own-brand dominates chilled pizza

Companies and Products
Dr. Oetker
Chicago Town (Dr. Oetker)
Goodfella’s (2 Sisters Food Group)
San Marco (2 Sisters Food Group)
PizzaExpress

Brand Communication
Key points
Total adspend reaches five-year high
Figure 19: Total advertising expenditure in the UK retail pizza market, 2008-12
Dr. Oetker commits a record annual adspend in 2012 as 2 Sisters slashes investment
Figure 20: Advertising expenditure in the UK pizza market, by company, 2009-12
Dr. Oetker
2 Sisters
Aldi showcases its pizza with price comparison advert
Pizza association challenges government on negative ad campaign

Consumer Usage of Pizza
Key points
Pizza boasts universal usage among families
Figure 21: Types of pizza eaten, April 2013
Frozen pizza is more widely eaten than chilled, despite negative perceptions
Nearly two fifths of frozen pizza users eat it at least once a week
Figure 22: Frequency of usage of frozen pizza, April 2013
Figure 23: Frequency of usage of chilled pizza, April 2013

Consumer Perceptions of Pizza Formats
Key points
Frozen pizza scores on convenience and value for money
Figure 24: Consumer perceptions of frozen and chilled pizza, April 2013
… but suffers from a poor health image
Two fifths view chilled pizza as high quality
Deep pan suffers poor healthy image but worth paying more for
Figure 25: Consumer perceptions of deep pan and thin crust pizza, April 2013

Consumer Attitudes Towards Pizza
Key points
Three in four pizza users want bases to be as natural as possible
Figure 26: Consumer attitudes towards pizza, April 2013
Interest in gluten-free pizza
Figure 27: Agreement with the statement, ‘I’d like to see a wider variety of gluten-free pizza,’ by presence of own children, April 2013
NPD opportunities in microwaveable and ethnic-inspired pizza
Figure 28: Agreement with the statements, ‘I’d like to see better quality microwaveable pizza,’ and ‘Pizza recipes influenced by other types of cuisine (eg Tex Mex, Turkish) interest me,’ by age, April 2013
Ethnic toppings
Half of users want to see the origin of pizza recipes on-pack
Figure 29: Agreement with the statement, ‘Having information about the origins of the recipe on packaging increases the pizza’s appeal,’ by age and selected socio-economic groups, April 2013
Freezer space is an issue for one in three
Figure 30: Agreement with the statements, ‘Pizzas are often too large to fit in the freezer,’ and ‘Buy-one-get-one free deals take up too much room in the freezer,’ by gender, April 2013

Consumer – Further Attitudes Towards Pizza
Key points
Untapped opportunities for children’s pizza
Figure 31: Further consumer attitudes towards pizza, April 2013
Delivery pizza has fresh appeal
NPD opportunities for British meat and added seasoning and dips
Figure 32: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d pay more for pizza if it came with seasoning (eg chili oil, herbs) or dips,’ and ‘I prefer British-sourced meat ingredients on pizza,’ by age, April 2013

Consumer Target Groups
Key points
Three target groups
Figure 33: Target groups, April 2013
Conservatives (30%)
Indulgers (36%)
Devotees (34%)

Appendix – Market Drivers
Figure 34: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
Figure 35: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-18
Figure 36: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-18

Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of total pizza, 2013-18
Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK volume sales of total pizza, 2013-18
Figure 39: UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2008-18
Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of frozen pizza, 2013-18
Figure 41: UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2008-18
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK volume sales of frozen pizza, 2013-18
Figure 43: UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2008-18
Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of chilled pizza, 2013-18
Figure 45: UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2008-18
Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK volume sales of chilled pizza, 2013-18

Appendix – Consumer Usage of Pizza
Figure 47: Most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 48: Next most popular types of pizza eaten, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 49: Other types of pizza eaten, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 50: Attitudes towards health and healthy lifestyles, by demographics, May 2013
Figure 51: Usage of frozen pizza, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 52: Usage of chilled pizza, by demographics, April 2013

Appendix – Consumer Perceptions of Pizza Formats
Figure 53: Most popular consumer perceptions of chilled, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 54: Next most popular consumer perceptions of chilled, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 55: Most popular consumer perceptions of frozen, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 56: Next most popular consumer perceptions of frozen, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 57: Most popular consumer perceptions of thin crust, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 58: Next most popular consumer perceptions of thin crust, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 59: Most popular consumer perceptions of deep pan, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 60: Next most popular consumer perceptions of deep pan, by demographics, April 2013

Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Pizza
Figure 61: Agreement with the statements ‘Pizzas are ideal food for sharing with family/friends’ and ‘Pizza bases should be as natural as possible’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 62: Agreement with the statements ‘Having information about the origins of the recipe on packaging increases the pizza’s appeal’ and ‘Pizza should contain fewer but better quality ingredients’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 63: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d like to see better quality microwaveable pizza’ and ‘Small, snack-sized pizzas are poor quality’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 64: Agreement with the statements ‘Pizza recipes influenced by other types of cuisine interest me’ and ‘The thinner the base, the healthier the pizza’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 65: Agreement with the statements ‘Pizzas are often too large to fit in the freezer’ and ‘Buy-one-get-one free deals take up too much room in the freezer’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 66: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d like to see a wider variety of gluten-free pizza’ and ‘Pizza can never be healthy’, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 67: Agreement with the statement ‘Children’s pizza should have added healthy ingredients (ask parents only)’, by demographics, April 2013

Appendix – Further Consumer Attitudes Towards Pizza
Figure 68: Most popular consumer attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 69: Next most popular consumer attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 70: Consumer attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, April 2013

Appendix – Consumer Target Groups
Figure 71: Consumer attitudes towards pizza, by demographics, April 2013
Figure 72: Agreement with statements regarding pizza, by target group, April 2013
Figure 73: Types of pizza eaten, by target group, April 2013
Figure 74: Usage of pizza, by type, by target group, April 2013
Figure 75: Usage of pizza, by type, by target group, April 2013
Figure 76: Consumer perceptions of pizza formats, by target group, April 2013
Figure 77: Consumer attitudes towards pizza, by target group, April 2013