China Research and Intelligence Co., Ltd. (CRI)
According to CRI, pork is a major variety of meat consumption in China so the pig industry plays a significant role in China’s animal husbandry. In 2017, the production volume of pork reached 63.4 million tons in China, accounting for 63.4% of the total production volume of meat.
For many years, the number of pigs in China has always been the highest in the world. Based on the data, the number of pigs on hand kept growing before 2012. However, the number has been on the decline since 2013 for rising costs and it decreased by 2.1% at the end of 2014 compared to the highest level in 2012. By the end of 2017, the number of pigs on hand reached 338 million, 8% lower than that in 2016. The number of pig slaughtered amounted to 688.1 million in 2017, with an increase of 0.5% over the previous year. From 2000 to 2014, the production volume of pork was on the increase in China, which exceeded 50 million tons in 2010 and then reached a new high of 56.71 million tons in 2014, with a proportion of 65.1% of the total. However, the production volume has been stuck in sluggish growth since 2015. It amounted to 53.4 million tons in 2017, increasing by 0.8% compared to 2016. In recent years, with the promotion of standardized large-scale breeding, the number of standardized large-scale farms has increased sharply.
According to CRI, pork is still the major meat consumption for Chinese residents. With the economic development and rising level of urbanization in China, the overall consumption of pork and the consumption per capita are both on the rise. As for the consumer groups, the household pork consumption of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents, and both have been relatively stable since 2009. Every year, urban residents consume over 20 kg of pork per capita while the rural residents consume about 15 kg of pork per capita.
The areas of pig raising and pork producing mainly include Asia, North America and Europe, such as China, EU, the U.S., Brazil and Canada. In addition, the major consumption is concentrated in China, Europe, North America, Japan, Russia, etc.
As the production volume of pork fails to meet the domestic demand in China, the overall import volume continues to increase. In 2017, the import volume of pork in China fell to 1.2168 million tons and decreased by 24.9% YOY. Meanwhile, the import value totaled about USD 2.22 billion, decreasing by 30.4% YOY. During 2014-2016, the import volume and value of pork both increased in China, while they declined in 2017. According to CRI, China has mainly imported pork from EU, the U.S. and Canada in recent years. Every year, China imports not only pork but also a great deal of pig offal for consumers' preference. In 2017, the total import volume of pork and pig offal reached 2.45 million tons. Of the total, the import volume from the U.S. accounted for 24%, which was 22% in 2016. Under the original import tariff policy, the imported pork and pig offal from the U.S. always have stable and obvious price advantages in the Chinese market. In terms of the level in Apr. 2018, the average price of imported pork and pig offal was 2.5-3.0 CNY/kg lower than that of domestic products. In the case of a 25% import tariff, the imported pork and pig offal from the U.S. will no longer maintain price advantages over the domestic products in China. If China imposes tariffs on pork and pig offal from the U.S., the gap will be filled up by pork products from Germany, Denmark, Spain, Canada, etc.
With the sustained economic development, the rising per capita income and the ongoing urbanization, the market demand for pork will continue to increase in China. However, hindered by rising costs of pig raising and stricter policies on environmental protection, the pig slaughtered and production volume of pork are not expected to increase rapidly from 2018 to 2012. It is estimated that the profits of pig raising will keep growing in recent years. At the same time, the import volume of pork will also continue to increase.
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