EpiCast Report: Breast Cancer - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022




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Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissues. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), breast cancer is the second most common cancer in the world and the most common cancer in women worldwide, accounting for 16% of all female cancers, making the disease exceedingly prevalent Breast cancer accounted for 519,000 deaths worldwide in 2004, of which 4776% occurred in developing countries in the Americas, the Western Pacific region, and Europe (Mathers et al., 2008). In 2008, an estimated 715,000 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed in the more developed regions (Europe, North America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan), compared with 577,000 new cases diagnosed in the less developed countries (IARC, 2008).


GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that all nine markets will see a substantial increase in the incident cases of breast cancer during 20122022. The total number of incident cases in the 9MM is expected to grow to 1.29 million cases in 2022 at a rate of 4.40% per year. The number of five-year prevalent cases in the 9MM is expected to increase by 43.9% over the next decade to 5,332,301 cases.


This forecast is supported by at least 10 years of robust, country-specific historical data obtained from the WHO International Agency for Cancer Researchs (IARCs) SurvCan, the Surveillance of Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program Cancer Statistics Review 19752009, EUROCARE-4, research articles published in peer-reviewed journals, and the IARCs Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI-5) Plus database, which provided detailed case segmentation by age and sex and is considered the gold standard for international comparison of country-specific data. Another major strength of this analysis is that GlobalData epidemiologists compared the incident case projections with the estimates made by country-specific registries and the IARC, and found that the forecast numbers were in accordance with the international estimates.




  • The Breast Cancer EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of invasive breast cancer in the 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and urban China). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the incident and five-year prevalent cases of breast cancer in women segmented by age (in five-year age groups beginning at 20 years and ending at 85 years and older), natural menopausal status, cancer stage at diagnosis (local, regional, distant, unstaged), and hormone receptor subtypes: ER+ and/or PR+, HER2-; ER-, PR-, HER2+; ER+ and/or PR+, HER2+; and ER-, PR-, HER2(triple negative).
  • The breast cancer epidemiology report is written and developed by Mastersand PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.


Reasons to buy


  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global breast cancer market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global breast cancer market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups, menopausal status, cancer stage, and hormone receptor subtypes that present the best opportunities for breast cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents


1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7


2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Upcoming Reports 9

3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
3.2.1 A family history of breast cancer and BRCA1/2 gene mutations significantly increase the breast cancer risk 12
3.2.2 Reproductive hormonal factors influence the risk of breast cancer 13
3.2.3 Modifiable lifestyle-related factors increase the risk of mortality in breast cancer patients 15
3.2.4 Screening programs have been shown to reduce breast cancer mortality, although the benefits need to be carefully weighed against the risks 17
3.3 Global Trends 19
3.3.1 Incidence 19
3.3.2 Prevalence and Survival 26
3.4 Forecast Methodology 31
3.4.1 Sources Used 33
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 38
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 39
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2012-2022) - Incident Cases 43
3.5.1 Incident Cases of Breast Cancer 43
3.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Breast Cancer 45
3.5.3 Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status 47
3.5.4 Incident Cases of Breast Cancer Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis 49
3.5.5 Age-Standardized Breast Cancer Incidence Rates 50
3.6 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2012-2022) Prevalent Cases 52
3.6.1 Five-Year Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer 52
3.6.2 Age-Specific Five-Year Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer 54
3.6.3 Five-Year Prevalent Cases by Menopausal Status 55
3.6.4 Five-Year Prevalent Cases by Hormone Receptor Subtypes 56
3.7 Discussion 58
3.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 58
3.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 60
3.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 61

4 Appendix 63
4.1 Bibliography 63
4.2 About the Authors 73
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 73
4.2.2 Reviewers 73
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Health Policy 75
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 76
4.3 About GlobalData 77
4.4 About EpiCast 77
4.5 Disclaimer 78

Table 1: Selected Major Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Breast Cancer 12
Table 2: Breast Cancer Mortality Attributable to Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors 16
Table 3: 9MM, Current Status and Plans of Large-Scale Breast Cancer Screening Programs 18
Table 4: 9MM, Relative Survival Rate for Breast Cancer, All Ages*, Women, %, 1991-2004** 27
Table 5: Conversion of Common Staging Systems for Breast Cancer Used in the Forecast 32
Table 6: 9MM, Sources of the Breast Cancer Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiological Forecast 32
Table 7: 9MM, Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages

Figure 1: 9MM, Age-Standardized Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages