Netherlands Quarterly Beverage Tracker Report Q4 2013




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Product Synopsis
Published by Canadean, this Quarterly Beverage Tracker report provides a detailed analysis of the latest developments in the Netherlands beverage market

Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
In the current climate of economic uncertainty and market volatility companies need to know about more than just data. This report provides a complete overview of all commercial beverage consumption trends, latest market developments and an economic mood indicator

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
Although still only small, the Dutch economy is showing positive signs of recovery. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was 0.2%, showing a three quarter trend turnaround. Q1 was negative, Q2 was zero and Q3 was 0.2%. Q4-13 thus helps to confirm that the country is finally coming out of recession.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
After an icy cold first half of the year, followed by a few scorching days in the third quarter, the last quarter of the year was unusually mild. The highest mid-day maximum temperature in December (12.7) exceeded mid-day maximum temperatures on 9 separate days in May 2013. This has caused confusion in nature, with difficult harvests (due to the frost destroying spring blooms) and a notable decrease in numbers of seasonal insects (such as mosquitoes and wasps) in certain localities.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?
Designed for clients who want to understand the latest trends in the Netherlands beverage industry and want more detail and analysis on this data. Canadean's Netherlands Quarterly Beverage Tracker report is ideal for benchmarking total market vs retail audit data and is an essential tool for keeping up-to-date with the latest industry and market developments

Key Features and Benefits
Readers are provided with a summary snap shot table showing category growth in Q42013vs Q42012, together with provisional 2013 volumes and latest2014 forecasts

An economic mood indicator, completed by Canadean's local consultant, examines (on a scale of one to five) whether confidence levels in the industry are better or worse than the previous quarter, whether net prices are rising or falling and how Private Label products have performed versus the rest of the market. Selected retail pricing data is given for the most recent quarter and the previous four quarters, enabling analysis of price movements.

Key highlights of the last quarter's commercial beverage performance are identified and the key market drivers examined

Volumes for Q42013 vs Q42012, Provisional2013 volumes, moving annual totals (MAT) and latest 2014 forecasts are provided for each individual beverage category, together with supporting text on quarterly performance and forecast assumptions. More granular data is provided for the Carbonates category, with data split by regular vs low calorie, and by key flavors. Significant activity in the soft drinks industry is covered including recent new product introductions (detailing flavor, pack type, pack size, retail price and selected pack shots) and the latest industry news.

This quarters special focus is Functional and Flavored Waters

Key Market Issues
Netherlands lost its AAA rating by Standard and Poor on 29 November. Moving from AAA status to AA+ casts a doubt to the world about the stability and creditworthiness of the Dutch economy. It also possibly brings with it higher interest rates for government borrowing.

According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, Dutch households continue to tighten the purse strings. Households have consistently been spending less, month after month, for a period of over two years now and with tap water being of such high quality in Netherlands, extra pressure is being put on drinks categories.

The unpredictable weather will have an effect on the drinks market as growing crops for beer, or fruit for juices, will become extremely unpredictable as there may become an excess or lack of bugs at the wrong or right times of year. Buds may also appear too early and get killed off by the frost.

Key Highlights
The inflation rate dropped to around 1.5% in the fourth quarter, down from about 2.8% in Q3. Business confidence, although still negative, is only at -0.3% for the quarter, which is a big improvement compared to the rest of the year. Consumer confidence also saw a significant improvement; although still negative at -20%, this is a far cry from the -44% seen in February this year.

The critical mass of supermarkets seems now to be moving to an online offering, giving the consumer the possibility of doing their purchases online and subsequently fetching their products at a pick-up point in a store. The latest supermarkets to invest in this idea are Jumbo and Hoogvliet (with 42 pick-up points); this scheme will start up in the coming months. It follows other supermarkets such as Albert Heijn and Plus which were early adopters of the concept.

Private Label remains strong as Dutch consumers are very sensitive to price and perceive Private Labels to be just as good as the branded version for many types of products. A number of supermarkets have worked on creating a stronger low-cost own Private Label line, which is now fully in place with a full range of products.