North America Beverage Forecasts March 2014




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Product Synopsis
Published by Canadean, North America Beverage Forecasts provides consumption trends 1999 to 2013 provisional and 2014 to 2019 forecasts for key beverage categories.

Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
This bi-annual report from Canadean is designed to show past consumption trends for all commercial beverage categories and forecast trends five years into the future. Product analysis is broken down into 30 categories: packaged water, bulk/HOD water, carbonates, juice, nectars, still drinks, squash/syrups, fruit powders, iced/rtd tea drinks, iced/rtd coffee drinks, sports drink, energy drinks, hot tea, hot coffee, beer, sorghum beer, cider, spirits, wine, fortified wine, sake, rice wine, FABs, dairy drinks (white milk, fermented milk, drinking yogurt, flavoured milk, soymilk, evaporated and condensed milk).

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
2012 proved to be a mixed bag across the drinks industry where packaged water consumption rose by 7%, bulk/HOD water steadied after years of decline, carbonates had another disappointing year, juice sales declined by 4% whereas squash/syrups saw an impressive growth of 12% over the year.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
Health-consciousness, sheer variety, the demand for added value, a gradual change of consumers' taste preferences as well as the widely affecting adverse economic situation across the globe have all impacted heavily upon the overall drinks market.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The report facilitates valuable data comparisons, enabling the user to monitor the development of commercial beverages over time by category and determine share of throat. It is an essential aid for anyone interested in the beverage industry.

Key Features and Benefits
Data for 28 individual beverage categories, covering historical trends (1999-2013 provisional and 2014-2019 forecast provided in excel).

Data measures in million litres and litres per capita

Supporting analysis for the individual beverage categories

Canadean's North America Beverage Forecasts includes data tables for Canada and the USA.

Supporting text for the USA.

Key Market Issues
Sales are forecast to grow by approximately 3% in 2014, which is partly attributed to the growing consumers trend to regard wine as a popular drink at the dinner table, and not just for special occasions.

White milk is suffering from the sharp decline in home breakfast consumption, where it is heavily geared as a drink in its own right or as an accompaniment to breakfast cereals.

Consumers of carbonates are much less likely to remain loyal throughout the day, instead opting for alternative beverages to suit the occasion and for refreshment.

Consumption of hot drinks is expected to increase by a further 1% in 2014. Health and wellness is a key driver with many consumers turning to green, herbal and flavored hot teas as a healthier alternative to coffee.

Key Highlights
Sales of packaged water rose by 4% in 2013, thanks to another very strong performance from private label brands and reduced pricing. Carbonated water performed particularly impressively, evidently sourcing some of its growth from a badly performing carbonates category.

Many coffee drinkers are choosing non-dairy creamers as substitutes for white milk. The substitutes that have benefited not only include soymilk but also nut, seed and rice milk alternatives, with the latter category displaying 28% growth in 2013.

Quick service restaurant operators will take an increasing share of the out-of-home hot coffee business, with Burger King the latest to offer a broader range of specialty hot coffees in collaboration with Starbucks-owned Seattle's Best Coffee.

Consumption of nectars increased by almost 7% in 2013. The key driver of the growth in 2013 was the lower calorie content of nectars compared to juice products, while the lower cost has also been an incentive for manufacturers to invest in this category

Cider sales rose by 15% in 2013 thanks mainly to widening distribution and a broader assortment of products and brands in most channels. Consumption of cider is expected to grow by a further 12% in 2014
Beverage Consumption Data Tables

Data Horizon 1999-2013P PROVISIONAL and 2014F-2019F FORECASTS

Measures: Volume (million litres), Population (millions), Litres Per Capita

Geographic Coverage
NORTH AMERICA: Canada, United States of America

Regional Balancers
For regions where it has not been possible to generate total market volumes by profiling each individual country, we have taken a value judgement to arrive at a balancing Others figure. This is recorded as a separate entity, specific to the Region to which it belongs

Product Coverage

Main beverage category groups: Soft (standard), Soft (extended), Beer, Spirits (standard), Spirits (extended) and Wines.

Individual beverage categories within each main group are as follows:

Soft (standard): Packaged Water, Carbonates, Juice (100% pure juice), Nectars (products with a 25-99% juice content), Still Drinks (<25% juice content), Squash/Syrups, Fruit Powders, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Tea, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Coffee, Sports Drinks, Energy Drinks. Packaged Water excludes all water sold in large containers of >10 litres
Soft (extended): Bulk/HOD Water, Dairy Drinks (White Milk, Flavoured Milk, Soymilk and Cultured Dairy Drinks including Drinking Yogurt and Fermented Milk combined), Hot Coffee, Hot Tea
Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and Cider
Spirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs))
Spirits (extended): Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs), Fortified Wine, Rice Wine and Sake
Wines: Wine (Still and Sparkling combined)

Market Commentary

Geographic Coverage
NORTH AMERICA: United States of America

Categories covered where applicable:
Packaged Water
Bulk/HOD Water
Still Drinks
Fruit Powders
Iced/Rtd Tea Drinks
Iced/Rtd Coffee Drinks
Sports Drinks
Energy Drinks
Dairy Drinks
Hot Tea
Hot Coffee
Fortified Wine
Rice Wine

North America Beverage Forecasts - Methodology