GBI Research, a leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research report, “Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Market to 2020 - New Therapies to Enhance Treatment Segmentation and Drive Growth in an Increasingly Competitive Market”. The value of the Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) market is expected to increase significantly over the forecast period across the leading eight developed nations, from $5.1 billion in 2013 to $7.9 billion in 2020. This equates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.6%. Growth will be driven by novel therapies entering the squamous cell carcinoma market segment, which is currently lacking effective treatment, unlike the non-squamous market segment.
The report focuses on the increasing differentiation between the three main NSCLC subtypes: squamous cell, adenocarcinoma, and large cell carcinoma. Common genetic and molecular aberrations within these histologies are being extensively researched and targeted by novel therapeutics and so the treatment algorithm between histological subtypes is forecast to become more differentiated over the forecast period. Most notably, patients with squamous cell carcinoma are set to benefit from crucial first- and second-line therapies in the form of Yervoy (ipilimumab) and nivolumab, having relied on generic chemotherapy for the past decade. Non-squamous patients, on the other hand, have several successful histology-specific therapies, such as Alimta (pemetrexed), and mutation-specific therapies, such as Tarceva (erlotinib), that are already marketed. New second-line entrants will create a crowded and competitive environment. The generic erosion of market leaders Alimta and Tarceva late in the forecast period will make this a tough environment for new products that have shown only minor improvements in safety or efficacy.
Despite the potential of targeted therapies and the identification of several promising molecular targets, the development of these products remains in the early-stage pipeline. Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) and Anaplastic Lymphoma Kinase (ALK) mutations are likely to remain the only identified intracellular molecular aberrations targeted by marketed products, both of which are mainly found in adenocarcinoma tumors. Instead, the late-stage pipeline is primarily occupied by immunotherapies, which still offer a greater degree of specificity than chemotherapies; however, they initiate tumor destruction via the immune system. Necitumumab, Yervoy and nivolumab are all Phase III immunotherapies expected to reach the market in the forecast period, each with a different target.
Resistance to targeted therapies is a significant issue in the NSCLC market as the onset of acquired resistance to therapies such as Tarceva or Xalkori (crizotinib) has greatly reduced their potential. Despite the limited late-stage pipeline activity with new molecular targets, there are new drugs targeting EGFR and ALK that may combat resistance, thereby increasing the time frame in which patients are treatable with targeted therapy. Gilotrif (afatinib) is a recently launched EGFR inhibitor with a novel mechanism of action that may delay the onset of resistance, and Zykadia (LDK378) is an ALK inhibitor in the late-stage pipeline that is set to treat Xalkori-resistant patients.
The report assesses the current NSCLC market and predicts market trends to 2020, analyzing key drivers and barriers.The areas covered include -
- A disease introduction, which defines the disease and looks at symptoms, diagnosis and treatment
- Analysis of the NSCLC marketed landscape, including a comparison of the efficacy and safety of the most prominent brands, as well as the unmet needs of NSCLC treatment
- Detailed analysis of the NSCLC pipeline, covering among other parameters, drug distribution by Phase, molecule type and mechanism of action. The NSCLC clinical trial landscape is analyzed with particular emphasis on failure rates across different trial Phases, as well as the trends in clinical trial size, duration and primary endpoint. This section also includes profiles and single product forecasts for the most promising pipeline drugs.
- An epidemiological forecast of the major NSCLC markets, in which projected values include total and treated populations
- An in-depth forecasting model for the NSCLC market, which considers the current marketed therapies in addition to the potential entry of new products to the market. The model comprises a projected outcome with high and low variance results depending on the potential performance of pipeline therapies.
- Analysis of strategic consolidations within the NSCLC indication, including co-development and licensing agreements
- An overview of the drivers of and barriers to the NSCLC market
Reasons to buy
The report will enable clients to develop a strong understanding of NSCLC as a disease and as a market. The current therapeutic needs and future market trends will highlight opportunities and the scope of competition between NSCLC therapeutics. Primarily, the report will allow clients to -
- Understand the NSCLC pipeline and the clinical needs that it is addressing, particularly the ways in which histology affects treatment options and where in the treatment algorithm new products will be positioned, as well as where unmet needs remain
- Develop their knowledge of key products that may enter the market before 2020. Detailed profiles of these products are provided, with a focus on their clinical trial performance, as well as how they can be incorporated into the NSCLC treatment plan and what competition they face.
- Assess the risk associated with NSCLC product development profiled by molecule type and mechanism of action and compared with both industry and therapy-area averages. In addition, data analyses offer a more detailed understanding of the trends in both trial size and duration for specific mechanisms of action or molecule types. The primary endpoint analysis infers trends in trial design within the therapy area, as well as the endpoints that are the best indicators of success.
- Identify patterns of growth in the NSCLC market over the forecast period and understand the underlying causes, as well as observing the contributions made by each major market and/or late-stage pipeline drug to this growth.