EpiCast Report: Breast Cancer (HER2-HER2+) - Epidemiology Forecast to 2023


#223225

70pages

GlobalData

$ 3995

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Breast cancer is a malignant tumor that originates in the breast tissues. Most breast cancers are invasive tumors that have grown beyond the ducts or lobules of the breast and can metastasize to other parts of the body through the bloodstream and the lymphatic system. Prolonged exposure to endogenous and exogenous sex hormones, gene mutations, a family history of breast cancer, overweight and obesity, physical inactivity, a sedentary lifestyle, high alcohol consumption, early age at menarche (<12 years), late age at menopause (>55 years), and clinical factors, such as biopsy-confirmed atypical hyperplasia, and having a high breast tissue and bone density are all risk factors for breast cancer.

 

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of diagnosed incident cases of breast cancer in women in the 8MM is expected to grow to 1.21 million cases in 2023 at a rate of 4.23% per year during the forecast period. The number of five-year diagnosed prevalent cases in the 8MM is expected to increase by 43.0% over the next decade to 5.12 million cases in 2023.

 

GlobalDatas forecast is supported by at least 10 years of robust, country-specific historical data obtained from the WHO International Agency for Cancer Researchs (IARCs) SurvCan, the Surveillance of Epidemiology and End Results Program Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2009, EUROCARE-4, research articles published in peer-reviewed journals, and the IARCs Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database, which provided detailed case segmentation by age and sex and is considered the gold standard for international comparison of country-specific data. Another strength of this analysis is that GlobalData epidemiologists compared the incident case projections with the estimates made by country-specific registries and the IARC, and found that the forecast numbers were in accordance with the international estimates.

 

Scope

 

  • The Breast Cancer (HER2-, HER2+) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for breast cancer in the eight major markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and urban China). In addition, the report also includes a 10-year forecast for the incident and the five-year prevalent cases of breast cancer in women segmented by age (20 to =85 years), natural menopausal status, cancer stage at diagnosis (local, regional, distant, unstaged), and hormone receptor subtypes: ER+ and/or PR+, HER2-; ER-, PR-, HER2+; ER+ and/or PR+, HER2+; and ER-, PR-, HER2(triple negative).
  • The breast cancer epidemiology report is written and developed by Mastersand PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

 

Reasons to buy

 

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global breast cancer market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global breast cancer market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups, menopausal status, cancer stage, and hormone receptor subtypes that present the best opportunities for breast cancer therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Table of Contents

 

1 Table of Contents 1

1.1 List of Tables 3

1.2 List of Figures 4

 

2 Executive Summary 5

 

3 Introduction 8

3.1 Catalyst 8

3.2 Related Reports 9

3.3 Upcoming Reports 9

 

4 Epidemiology 9

4.1 Disease Background 9

4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 10

4.2.1 A family history of breast cancer and BRCA1/2 gene mutations significantly increase the breast cancer risk 11

4.2.2 Reproductive hormonal factors influence the risk of breast cancer 12

4.2.3 Modifiable lifestyle-related factors increase the risk of mortality in breast cancer patients 13

4.2.4 Screening programs have been shown to reduce breast cancer mortality, although the benefits need to be carefully weighed against the risks 15

4.3 Global Trends 18

4.3.1 Incidence 18

4.3.2 Prevalence and Survival 24

4.4 Forecast Methodology 28

4.4.1 Sources Used 29

4.4.2 Sources Not Used 34

4.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 34

4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2013–2023) – Diagnosed Incident Cases 37

4.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer 37

4.5.2 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Age 39

4.5.3 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status 41

4.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer Segmented by Stage at Diagnosis 43

4.5.5 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer 45

4.6 Epidemiological Forecast for Breast Cancer (2013–2023) — Diagnosed Prevalent Cases 46

4.6.1 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer 46

4.6.2 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Menopausal Status 47

4.6.3 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases by Hormone Receptor Subtypes 48

4.7 Discussion 50

4.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 50

4.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis 52

4.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis 53

 

5 Appendix 54

5.1 Bibliography 54

5.2 About the Authors 63

5.2.1 Epidemiologists 63

5.2.2 Reviewers 63

5.2.3 Acting Director of Epidemiology 63

5.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 64

5.3 About GlobalData 65

5.4 About EpiCast 65

5.5 Contact Us 66

5.6 Disclaimer 6

 

Table 1: Selected Major Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Breast Cancer 11

Table 2: Breast Cancer Mortality Attributable to Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors 15

Table 3: 8MM, Current Status and Plans of Large-Scale Breast Cancer Screening Programs 17

Table 4: 8MM, Relative Survival Rate for Breast Cancer, All Ages*, Women, %, 1991–2004** 24

Table 5: Conversion of Common Staging Systems for Breast Cancer Used in the Forecast 28

Table 6: 8MM, Sources of the Breast Cancer Diagnosed Incidence Data Used in the Epidemiological Forecast 29

Table 7: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013–2023 38

Table 8: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Age, Women, N (Row %), 2013 40

Table 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages =20 Years, Women, N (Row %), 2013 42

Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 43

Table 11: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013–2023 46

Table 12: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Hormone Receptor Subtypes, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 49

 

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 and 2023 6

Figure 2: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 and 2023 7

Figure 3: 8MM, Age-Standardized Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages =15 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2008 18

Figure 4: 8MM, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages =15 Years, Women, Rate per 100,000 Population, 2008 19

Figure 5: US, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, All Ages, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1975–2009 20

Figure 6: 5 EU, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages =15 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 1975–2010 22

Figure 7: Japan, Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, All Ages, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2003–2008 23

Figure 8: 8MM, Relative Survival Rate for Breast Cancer, All Ages*, Women, %, 1991–2004** 25

Figure 9: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013–2023 39

Figure 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer, by Age, Women, N, 2013 41

Figure 11: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 43

Figure 12: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Breast Cancer by Stage at Diagnosis, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 44

Figure 13: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Rate of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2013 45

Figure 14: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013–2023 47

Figure 15: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Menopausal Status, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 48

Figure 16: 8MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Breast Cancer by Hormone Receptor Subtypes, Ages =20 Years, Women, N, 2013 50