The Future Internet in 2025


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119pages

IDate

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Open paradigms for personal data and platforms?

This report presents a detailed perspective of potential futures for the Internet services market by 2025, with their impacts on the adjacent ICT market of devices, telecom and software and on non-ICT, vertical markets.

By using assumptions regarding openness of ecosystems and personal data, it assesses the major disruptive trends around technology, usage, business models and regulations, to determine the greatest uncertainties that will shape perceptions in 2025. Four major scenarios – platform wars, low-cost islands, open innovation and 'pay per trust' – are identified and quantified, with breakdowns by business model (advertising, one-off payment, unlimited subscriptions and commission on sales) and by service (cloud, video, social, search, mobile, e-commerce, communications, RTB and digital content)
Table of Content

1. Executive Summary
1.1. Major trends
1.2. Major uncertainties
1.3. Scenarios for 2025

2. Methodology
2.1. General methodology of IDATE 's reports
2.2. Scenarios

3. The fundamental disruptions induced by Internet development
3.1. Drivers
3.1.1. The rollout of standardised and open technologies
3.1.2. The economics of information
3.1.3. Network agnosticism
3.1.4. Reach
3.2. Barriers
3.2.1. Proprietary technologies
3.2.2. Cost structure of non-software-based services
3.2.3. Network interoperability and access
3.2.4. Local and commercial barriers
3.3. Overall impacts for service provider activities
3.3.1. Service Development: Lower cost per unit
3.3.2. Evolution of the ecosystem: New value chains?
3.3.3. New market environment

4. Technologies
4.1. Key technologies
4.1.1. Network infrastructure and standards: Fibre, LTE, QoS, SDN
4.1.2. Traffic management and optimisation solutions: CDN, DPI/PCRF, small cells
4.1.3. Cloud infrastructure and data management: The cloud and big data
4.1.4. Internet of Things: M2M, RFID, wearables, sensors
4.1.5. Mobile technologies: GPS, NFC, QR code and augmented reality
4.1.6. Security
4.2. Analysis of technology trends
4.2.1. Main disruptive technologies
4.2.2. Other disruptive technologies
4.2.3. Other technologies
4.3. Conclusions and uncertainties

5. Usages and user expectations
5.1. Key usages and user behaviour
5.1.1. The shift online
5.1.2. Mobility
5.1.3. IT consumerisation
5.1.4. Personalisation
5.1.5. Free Internet
5.1.6. Sharing data
5.2. Analysis of usage trends
5.2.1. Main disruptive trends
5.2.2. Other disruptive trends
5.2.3. Other trends
5.3. Conclusions and uncertainties

6. Business Models
6.1. Current market situation
6.1.1. Revenue models: Advertising, paid services and E-commerce
6.1.2. Competition: Cross subsidies, bundles
6.1.3. Data monetisation: Internet giants ' ARPU low
6.1.4. The role of device manufacturers: direct revenues from personal data are secondary
6.2. Analysis of main business models trends
6.2.1. Main disruptive trends
6.2.2. Other disruptive trends
6.2.3. Other trends
6.3. Conclusions and uncertainties

7. Policy, Regulation and Governance
7.1. Current regulatory framework
7.1.1. Internet Governance
7.1.2. Net Neutrality - Access
7.1.3. Piracy
7.2. Analysis of trends
7.2.1. Main disruptive trends
7.2.2. Other disruptive trends
7.2.3. Other trends
7.3. Conclusions and uncertainties

8. Scenarios for 2025
8.1. Current picture
8.1.1. Regional breakdown
8.1.2. The weight of local industry
8.1.3. Major market segments
8.2. Major uncertainties
8.3. Main scenario for 2025: Platform wars
8.3.1. Scenario characteristics
8.3.2. Technologies
8.3.3. Usages
8.3.4. Business Models
8.3.5. Regulation
8.3.6. The moves necessary to attain this scenario
8.3.7. Major players in such a scenario
8.4. Alternative scenarios
8.4.1. Open innovation
8.4.2. Low-cost Islands
8.4.3. Pay per Trust

9. Main results
9.1. Overall market sizing
9.2. Breakdown per category
9.2.1. Main scenario overall vision
9.2.2. Comparison of scenarios
9.3. Breakdown per revenue model
9.3.1. Main scenario
9.3.2. Comparison of scenarios
9.4. Focus on major Internet services
9.4.1. Cloud
9.4.2. Search
9.4.3. Social
9.4.4. Video
9.4.5. Mobile
9.4.6. Vertical
9.4.7. Communications
9.4.8. RTB

10. Data book
10.1. Platforms Wars
10.2. Low-cost Islands
10.3. Open Innovation
10.4. Pay Per Trust

Table 1: Mobile network performance levels
Table 2: Status of regulatory debates and policies, by country, in 2014
Table 3: Various graduated response measures o piracy implemented by in some countries
Table 4: Key uncertainties presented in previous sections
Table 5: Characteristics and impacts of uncertainties in Platform Wars scenario
Table 6: Characteristics and impacts of uncertainties in Open Innovation scenario
Table 7: Characteristics and impacts of uncertainties in Low-cost Islands scenario
Table 8: Characteristics and impacts of uncertainties in Pay per Trust scenario
Table 9: Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Platform Wars scenario
Table 10: Focus on major Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Platform Wars scenario
Table 11: Breakdown of Internet market by business model, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Platform Wars scenario
Table 12: Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - 10.2. Low-cost Islands scenario
Table 13: Focus on major Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Low-cost Islands scenario
Table 14: Breakdown of Internet market by business model, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Low-cost Islands scenario
Table 15: Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 – Open Innovation scenario
Table 16: Focus on major Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Open Innovation scenario
Table 17: Breakdown of Internet market by business model, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Open Innovation scenario
Table 18: Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 – Pay per Trust scenario
Table 19: Focus on major Internet markets, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Pay per Trust scenario
Table 20: Breakdown of Internet market by business model, 2013-2018 & 2025 - Pay per Trust scenario

Figure 1: Four main scenarios for 2025
Figure 2: Fundamental drivers of Internet
Figure 3: Some networking standards in the OSI model
Figure 4: HTML5 APIs and related technologies: Taxonomy and specification status
Figure 5: Disk cost-per-byte, 1990-2020
Figure 6: From network silos to agnostic network
Figure 7: Growth of fixed and mobile Internet penetration worldwide, 2013 & 2017
Figure 8: Fundamental barriers to Internet
Figure 9: Evolution of market share of mobile OS
Figure 10: Total voice and data traffic per device in Canada
Figure 11: The technological process of FBX
Figure 12: Distermediation and Reintermediation
Figure 13: Evolution of user bases of the most important mobile messaging apps
Figure 14: Short-term growth of major technology markets
Figure 15: Throughput, latency and connections required for 5G services
Figure 16: Data in the cloud, seen by Tekelec
Figure 17: Major technologies for traffic management and network optimisation
Figure 18: Cloud computing market segments
Figure 19: Cloud computing in a smart city
Figure 20: Umbrella of Internet of Things covers many concepts and markets
Figure 21: Forecasts for the different components of the Internet of Things
Figure 22: Use of mobile payment services in the USA, Q2 2014
Figure 23: Possible security breach locations and impact
Figure 24: Cyber-attacks, by technique and by country, in 2013
Figure 25: Social network penetration 2013, fixed and mobile
Figure 26: Breakdown of mobile Internet revenue: advertising vs. applications
Figure 27: Stages in data treatment process
Figure 28: Major API players, by calls/day
Figure 29: Likelihood of main technologies
Figure 30: Percentage of Europeans who have used Internet at least once a week
Figure 31: Internet use in the USA, over time (1995-2014)
Figure 32: Social networking site use by age group, over time (2005-2013)
Figure 33: Use of Internet for communications by age group in EU, in 2013
Figure 34: Use of Internet for access to information and learning purposes by age group in EU, in 2013
Figure 35: Internet activities in the UK, in 2007 and 2013
Figure 36: Numbers of Internet users, by access, 2011-2016
Figure 37: Mobile Internet users in the UK, in 2013
Figure 38: Mobile services adoption by 2018
Figure 39: Consumer tools in enterprise
Figure 40: Interest for personalization in retail and banking
Figure 41: Willingness to pay for content
Figure 42: Consumer preparedness to share personal data, by conditions
Figure 43: Online hardware purchase considerations of US consumers, in 2013
Figure 44: Online purchase considerations of Chinese consumers, 2014
Figure 45: Evolution of contributors to Wikipedia, 2001-2014
Figure 46: Taxonomy of the sharing economy
Figure 47: Consumer attitudes towards the sharing economy, 2014
Figure 48: Main companies operating in the sharing economy
Figure 49: Netflix catalogue examples
Figure 50: Nike Plus community Growth, 2012-2013
Figure 51: People using tracking mechanisms (including non-electronic ones)
Figure 52: Sharing economy 3D-printing
Figure 53: User online privacy-protection strategies
Figure 54: Screenshot of the Lightbeam interface
Figure 55: Likelihood of main consumer behaviours and usages
Figure 56: User preparedness to share personal data
Figure 57: Worldwide advertising markets breakdown in 2013
Figure 58: Internet services revenue breakdown in 2013
Figure 59: Worldwide revenues of digital content in 2013
Figure 60: Top Internet players all over the board in 2014
Figure 61: Estimated annual per-user revenue for Internet services worldwide, 2011-2013
Figure 62: Apple sales breakdown, 2009-2012
Figure 63: Impact of cloud model on opex reduction
Figure 64: The Real-Time Bidding process
Figure 65: Spotify rate card (UK)
Figure 66: Spotify premium and free users
Figure 67: Capital expenditure of Google, Amazon and Microsoft for their data centers, 2011-2013
Figure 68: Likelihood of main business models
Figure 69: Google attempts at territorial expansion
Figure 70: Global governance of the Internet
Figure 71: Evolution of consent
Figure 72: UK tax liabilities of US enterprises, 2011
Figure 73: Likelihood of regulations and policies
Figure 74: Google market share in China, 2012-24
Figure 75: Online services in top league of IPOs, 1999-2014
Figure 76: Breakdown of Internet services market in 2013
Figure 77: Four potential scenarios of Internet evolution, to 2025
Figure 78: Ecosystem sizes of Internet giants, 2010-2013
Figure 79: Evolving preferences for Google Maps or Apple Maps, October 2012 - September 2013
Figure 80: Diversity of acquisitions by platforms for enlargement
Figure 81: Major acquisitions from Internet giants
Figure 82: Illustrative players and initiatives – Platform Wars scenario
Figure 83: Most popular social media sites with teens, 2012-2013
Figure 84: Appeal and deterrents of HTML5 for mobile developers
Figure 85: Positioning of major VRM initiatives
Figure 86: Illustrative players and initiatives – Open Innovation scenario
Figure 87: Power plant system identified through Shodan
Figure 88: P2P payment models
Figure 89: The rapid rise of DuckDuckGo
Figure 90: Illustrative initiatives and players – Low-cost Islands scenario
Figure 91: Search engine market shares in South East Asia and South Korea
Figure 92: Profiles of South Korean OTT services
Figure 93: Transaction steps with Apple Pay
Figure 94: World's biggest security breaches 2010-2014, by number of accounts (only >30,000)
Figure 95: Illustrative initiatives and players – Pay per Trust scenario
Figure 96: Worldwide market sizing for Internet services, 2017-2025
Figure 97: Worldwide Internet services market breakdown in 2013 and 2025 – Platform Wars scenario
Figure 98: Detailed breakdown of worldwide Internet services market in 2025 – Platform Wars scenarios
Figure 99: Worldwide Internet services market breakdown, in 2013 and all scenarios in 2025
Figure 100: Evolution of business models breakdown, 2013-2025 – Platform Wars scenario
Figure 101: Breakdown of worldwide Internet services market by business model, by 2025 – All scenarios
Figure 102: Comparison of scenarios regarding advertising and paid content and apps revenues in 2025 – Worldwide
Figure 103: Worldwide Cloud markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 104: Worldwide Search markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 105: Worldwide Social markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 106: Worldwide Social markets breakdown, in 2013 and all scenarios in 2025
Figure 107: Worldwide Video services markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 108: Worldwide Video markets breakdown, in 2013 and all scenarios in 2025
Figure 109: Worldwide Mobile services markets, 2017-2025 – All scenarios
Figure 110: Worldwide Mobile markets breakdown, in 2013 and all scenarios in 2025
Figure 111: Worldwide Vertical services markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 112: Worldwide Mobile services markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios
Figure 113: Worldwide RTB markets, 2017-2025 –– All scenarios