Afren Plc Valuation Report, September 2010 - Strategic and Operational Analysis


#41332

88pages

GlobalData

$ 3500

In Stock


Afren Plc (Afren) is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, exploitation and exploration of oil and gas assets in Africa. The company’s strategy is to become a premier pan-African independent exploration and production company through partnering with indigenous companies, national oil companies and governments; and through strong African representation on its Board. The company aims at tapping the vast untapped gas resources in the Gulf of Guinea. 

Scope

  • Investment Thesis: This section highlights the companies new ventures, liquidity issues, assets analysis, hedging, new projects details, capex funding, geographical results of oil and gas operations, and other related analysis.
  • Goals and Strategies: Provide highlights on their existing and upcoming challenges with the possible strategies.
  • SWOT: This section highlights the companies internal strength, weakness, opportunities and threats to better understand their position in the market
  • Production and Development profile: This section highlights the companies’ forecasted crude oil and natural gas production from their existing and upcoming assets. It also covers the detailed information and analysis on the producing and development assets.
  • Exploration and M&A trends: This section includes exploration assets information resulted due to new discoveries, new drilling and other activities. Additionally, M&A section highlights the companies’ recent assets transactions, joint ventures, acquisition, and divestment activities during the specified period.
  • Financial Forecast and Valuation: This section highlights the detailed financial forecast of the companies for coming five years. This section also provides intrinsic value of the companies’ by using different valuation techniques.
  • Peer Group: This section compares peer group performance with the main companies on the basis of share prices, financial ratios, operational and financial parameters and other related activities.
Reasons to buy

The report will enhance the decision-making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner. It will allow you to:
  • Provide detailed analysis to those who are interested in knowing the companies’ existing and future business strategies.
  • Provide in-depth analysis on the companies E&P profiles along with the exploration and M&A updates.
  • Provide valuable insights to those who are tracking oil and gas markets and wants to know the intrinsic value of the companies.
  • Use the analysis for strategy and planning, M&A identifications, and competitor analysis.
Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures

2 Afren Plc, Company Overview

3 Afren Plc, Watchlist for 2010

4 Afren Plc, Investment Summary

4.1 Ebok Field Development to Add Substantial Production Volumes
4.2 Proposed Acquisition of Black Marlin Energy Limited
4.3 Deep Exploration and Appraisal Inventory To Provide Medium Term and Long Term Reserve and Production Growth
4.4 Strengthening Financial Performance

5 Afren Plc, SWOT Analysis
5.1 Strengths
5.1.1 Balanced Portfolio of Assets
5.1.2 Large Proportion of Liquids in Total Production
5.1.3 Strengthened Balance Sheet to Support Liquidity
5.2 Weakness
5.2.1 Funding Capex through Debt and Equity
5.3 Opportunities
5.3.1 Focused on West Africa
5.3.2 Upcoming Ebok Field to Add Significant Production Volumes
5.3.3 Exploration Upside Potential
5.3.4 Acquisition of Black Marlin to Add Substantial Resource Base in East Africa
5.4 Threats
5.4.1 Acquisition of Black Marlin to Divert Focus from West Africa

6 Afren Plc, Goals and Stategies
6.1 Achieve Organic Operational Growth
6.2 Achieve a Pan-African Presence by Pursuing Materially Accretive Acquisitions
6.3 Controlling Operating Costs and Strenthening Financial Position
6.4 Funding 2011 Capex Program Primarily Through Internally Generated Cash Flows

7 Afren Plc, Production Overview
7.1 Production Profile
7.2 Redevelopment Activity at the Okoro Field to Increase Production in the Short Term Followed by Declining Production Volumes
7.3 Planned Workover Program on Block CI-11 to Increase Reserve Base and Production Levels in the Future

8 Afren Plc, Costs Incurred

9 Afren Plc, Development Overview

9.1 Development Profile
9.2 Ebok Development Program To Add Significant Production Growth

10 Afren Plc, Exploration Overview
10.1 Exploration Highlights
10.2 Success at the Ebok field Fuels Exploration and Appraisal Activities in the Surrounding Areas Including Okwok, Ebok Deep and OML-115
10.3 Building Presence along the West African Transform Margin and Upper Cretaceous Fairway
10.4 Availability of Inventory For Future Exploration Activities

11 Afren Plc, M&A Highlights
11.1 M&A Activity
11.2 Proposed Acquisition of Black Marlin Energy
11.2.1 Deal Highlights
11.2.2 Deal Overview

12 Afren Plc, Outlook


13 Afren Plc, Forecast Financial Statements
13.1 Income Statement (2007-2014)
13.2 Balance Sheet (2007-2014)
13.3 Cash Flow Statement (2007-2014)
13.4 Financial Ratios

14 Afren Plc, Valuation
14.1 Net Asset Value

15 Afren Plc, Peer Comparison

16 Afren Plc, Key Risks

16.1 Delays Related to the Development of the Ebok Field
16.2 Unsuccessful Exploration Program
16.3 Inability to Fund Growth Plans

17 Afren Plc, Detailed Financial and Operational Metrics
17.1 Afren plc, Production and Reserves Trends
17.1.1 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production and Reserves Trend, 2004-2009
17.1.2 Total Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production and Reserves By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.1.3 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Changes, 2004-2009
17.1.4 Crude Oil/Liquids Production and Reserve Trend, 2004-2009
17.1.5 Crude Oil Production and Reserves By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.1.6 Crude Oil/Liquids Reserve Changes, 2004-2009
17.1.7 Natural Gas Production and Reserve Trend, 2004-2009
17.1.8 Natural Gas Production and Reserves, By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.1.9 Natural Gas Reserve Changes, 2004-2009
17.1.10 Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves Life Index, 2004-2009
17.2 Afren plc, E&P Costs Trends
17.2.1 Upstream Capital Expenditure, 2004-2009
17.2.2 Acquisition Costs By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.2.3 Exploration and Development Costs, By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.3 Afren plc, Results of Oil & Gas Operations Trend
17.3.1 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, 2004-2009
17.3.2 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, By Country/Region, 2004-2009
17.3.3 Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, $/ boe, 2004-2009
17.3.4 Oil and Gas Performance Metrics

18 Appendix
18.1 Methodology
18.1.1 Coverage
18.1.2 Secondary Research
18.1.3 Primary Research
18.2 Data Sources
18.2.1 Company Source
18.2.2 SEC/Other Regulatory Filings
18.2.3 Agency Reports
18.2.4 Other Sources
18.3 Methodology for Company Valuation
18.4 Expert Panel Validation
18.5 Units of Measure
18.6 Other Abbreviations
18.7 About GlobalData
18.8 Disclosure
18.9 Disclaimer

Table 1: Afren Plc, Key Events, September 2009September 2010 8
Table 2: Afren Plc, Upcoming Production, MMboe, 20102014 31
Table 3: Afren Plc, Recent Transactions as a Seller, 20062010 44
Table 4: Afren Plc, Recent Transactions as a Buyer, 20062010 45
Table 5: Black Marlin Energy Holdings Ltd, Asset Overview, 2010 46
Table 6: Afren Plc, Pro-forma Balance Sheet Post Acquisition of Black Marlin, 2010 48
Table 7: Afren Plc, Forecast Production, 20092014 51
Table 8: Afren Plc, Price Forecast, 20102014 51
Table 9: Afren Plc, Income Statement, $m, 20072014 53
Table 10: Afren Plc, Balance Sheet, $m, 20072014 54
Table 11: Afren Plc, Cash Flow Statement, $m, 20072014 55
Table 12: Afren Plc, Profitability Ratios, 20072014 56
Table 13: Afren Plc, Other Ratios, 20072014 56
Table 14: GlobalData, Price Forecast, 20102014 58
Table 15: Afren Plc, Net Asset Value, 2010 59
Table 16: Afren Plc, Prospective Acreage and Non Proven Reserves, 2010 59
Table 17: Afren Plc, NPV of Oil/NGL Reserves, $/bbl, 2010 59
Table 18: Afren Plc, NPV of Natural Gas Reserves, $/Mcf, 2010 60
Table 19: Afren Plc, NPV of Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves, $/boe, 2010 60
Table 20: Afren Plc, Sensitivity Analysis on Fair Value,
Figure 1: Afren Plc, Operating Regions Map, 2010 6
Figure 2: Afren Plc, Financial Overview, 20082009 7
Figure 3: Afren Plc, Share Price Movement, September 2009September 2010 8
Figure 4: Afren Plc, Contribution of Ebok Field to Total Production, 20102014 10
Figure 5: Afren Plc, Net Resource Potential, MMboe, 2010 12
Figure 6: Afren Plc, Cash Flows and Debt Position, 2010 14
Figure 7: Afren Plc, Sources and Uses of Funds, $m, 20082010 16
Figure 8: Afren Plc, Global Proved Reserves Growth, bboe, 19882008 17
Figure 9: Afren Plc, Breakdown of Prospective Resources by Asset, MMboe, 2009 18
Figure 10: Afren Plc, Net Reserves and Resources, MMboe, 2009 20
Figure 11: Afren Plc, Total Net Oil and Gas Production From Legacy Assets, MMboe, 20092014 23
Figure 12: Afren Plc, Okoro Setu Fields Operational Map, 2010 24
Figure 13: Afren Plc, Block CI-11 Operational Map, 2010 26
Figure 14: Afren Plc, Costs Incurred, $m, 20082009 27
Figure 15: Afren Plc, Planned Capital Expenditure, $m, 2010 28
Figure 16: Afren Plc, Total Production From Upstream Assets, MMboe, 20092014 29
Figure 17: Afren Plc, Total Production By Type, MMboe, 20092014 30
Figure 18: Afren Plc, Total Production By Region, MMboe, 20092014 30
Figure 19: Afren Plc, Ebok Field Development Plan, 2010 33
Figure 20: Afren Plc, Ebok Field Net Reserves and Resources, 2009 33
Figure 21: Afren Plc, Exploration and Appraisal Plan, 2010 35
Figure 22: Afren Plc, Exploration and Appraisal Budget, $m, 2010 36
Figure 23: Afren Plc, Ebok-Okwok-OML 115 Area Operation Map, 2010 38
Figure 24: Afren Plc, Ebok-Okwok-OML 115 Area Gross Resource Potential, 2010 38
Figure 25: Afren Plc, Ebok-Okwok-OML 115 Area Gross Resource Potential, 2010 39
Figure 26: Afren Plc, Blocks OPL 907 and 917, Operational Map, 2010 41
Figure 27: Afren Plc, Block 1 Sao TomePrincipe Joint Development Zone, Operational Map, 2010 42
Figure 28: Black Marlin Energy Holdings Ltd, Operating Regions, 2010 46
Figure 29: Afren Plc, Pro-forma Resource Potential, MMboe, 2010 47
Figure 30: Afren Plc, Pro-forma Capital Expenditure Plan Excluding Acquisitions, $m, 20102012 48
Figure 31: Afren Plc and Peer Group, Relative Share Price Performance Index, September 2009September 2010 61
Figure 32: Afren Plc and Peer Group, E&P Operational and Financial Performance, $/boe, 2009 64
Figure 33: Afren Plc and Peer Group, Total Reserves and Production, MMboe, 2009 64
Figure 34: Afren Plc and Peer Group, Comparative Valuation Multiples, 2010 65
Figure 35: Afren plc, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Production and Reserves, MMboe, 2004-2009 67
Figure 36: Afren plc, Total Proved Oil & Gas Reserves, By Country/Region, MMboe, 2004-2009 68
Figure 37: Afren plc, Total Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Changes, MMboe, 2009 69
Figure 38: Afren plc, Crude Oil Production and Reserves Metrics, MMbbl, 2004-2009 70
Figure 39: Afren plc, Total Proved Oil Reserves, By Country/Region, MMbbl, 2004-2009 71
Figure 40: Afren plc, Crude Oil Reserve Changes, MMbbl, 2009 72
Figure 41: Afren plc, Natural Gas Production and Reserves Metrics, Bcf, 2004-2009 73
Figure 42: Afren plc, Total Proved Gas Reserves, By Country/Region, Bcf, 2004-2009 74
Figure 43: Afren plc, Natural Gas Reserve Changes, Bcf, 2009 75
Figure 44: Afren plc, Oil and Gas Reserves Life Index, Years, 2004-2009 76
Figure 45: Afren plc, Upstream Capital Expenditure, $m, 2004-2009 77
Figure 46: Afren plc, Development Costs, By Country/Region, $m, 2004-2009 78
Figure 47: Afren plc, Exploration Costs, By Country/Region, $m, 2004-2009 78
Figure 48: Afren plc, Revenue and Expenses, $m, 2004-2009 79
Figure 49: Afren plc, Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization , By Country/Region, $m, 2004-2009 80
Figure 50: Afren plc, Oil & Gas Revenue, By Country/Region, $m, 2004-2009 81
Figure 51: Afren plc, Total Expenses, By Country/Region, $m, 2004-2009 81
Figure 52: Afren plc, Oil and Gas Revenue and Expenses, $/boe, 2004-2009 82
Figure 53: Afren plc, Oil and Gas Performance Metrics, 2004-2009 83