Traditional Toys and Games - US - November 2016


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Mintel

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The toy market totals an estimated $26.2 billion in 2016 and has experienced strong growth in the past two years. This trajectory is likely to continue into 2017 given the positive economic climate and the anticipated release of new installments in movie franchises popular with kids. Character merchandising is an important component of growth, but toy companies are also looking to integrate new technologies such as robotics and augmented reality into their products to delight shoppers.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Kids 12+ age out of the toy category
Figure 1: Toy purchases, September 2016
Older adults have limited exposure to the market
Figure 2: Reasons for purchase – select items, by age, September 2016
Amazon a likely choice for shoppers with older kids
Figure 3: Retailers shopped, by age of child, September 2016
The opportunities
Toys can embrace the power of silence
Figure 4: Expectations for kids toys – select items, by parental status, September 2016
Word-of-mouth is worth its weight
Figure 5: Sources of influence, September 2016
Some people never grow up
Figure 6: Attitudes toward toys and games, September 2016
What it means

THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strong market growth in recent years
Smaller families may shrink addressable audience
Outdoor toys lead the market
Ownership of dolls decreasing, ownership of toy guns increasing
Entertainment and technology bring promise of future growth

MARKET SIZE AND BREAKDOWN
Growth in the toy market accelerates
Figure 7: Total US retail sales of traditional toys and games, at current prices, 2011-16
Toy segments remain stable
Figure 8: Distribution of dollar sales of toys and games, by type, 2013 and 2015

MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Traditional dolls decline in popularity
Figure 9: Doll ownership, May 2005-June 2016
Barbie continues to dominate the doll segment
Figure 10: Doll ownership, by type, April 2011-June 2016
Sales of toy guns thrive even in a critical environment
Figure 11: Toy gun ownership, May 2006-June 2016
Toy companies expand the “Christmas creep”
Pokémon Go sets the stage for the next big thing in gaming
Figure 12: Use of video games, May 2006-June 2016
Toy market ebbs and flows with the entertainment industry

MARKET FACTORS
Americans feeling financially stable
Figure 13: Personal financial situations, 2013-15
Consumer confidence high, albeit a bit uncertain
Figure 14: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-June 2016
Growth in nonfamily households can reduce market potential
Figure 15: Family and nonfamily households, 2005-15
Shrinking family sizes may dampen outlook
Figure 16: Average number of children per household (including households with no children), 2005-15

KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Mattel
Lego
Hasbro
Jakks Pacific
MGA Entertainment

KEY PLAYERS
Mattel
Figure 17: Toys “R” Us ads for Barbie, December 2015
Lego
Hasbro
Figure 18: Toys “R” Us ad for Disney Princess, March 2016
Jakks Pacific Inc.
MGA Entertainment

KEY TRENDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Young parents looking for the old and the new
No one’s a loser with cooperative board games
Toy companies duke it out over film rights
Developing new technologies can be a risk for toy companies
Hot holiday toys
No such thing as girls’ toys and boys’ toys

WHAT’S WORKING?
1980s comebacks appeal to young parents
Kids learn to innovate with STEM based toys
Figure 19: How to Use Your Code & Go(TM) Robot Mouse Activity Set
Figure 20: Barbie STEM Kit by Thames & Kosmos
Figure 21: Girls Only! Secret Message Lab: Dancing Man Code
Figure 22: Getting Started
Figure 23: Walmart email for STEM toys, October 2016
Avoid the family fight with cooperative board games
Barbie bounces back
Competition heightens for big-name licenses
Sales declines push American Girl line into new locations
Figure 24: Toys “R” Us email promotion, American Girl, October 2016

WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
WiFi-enabled toys spark privacy controversy
PlayMation products fail to launch
Jurassic World toys go extinct at Hasbro
Toys-to-life segment has growing pains

WHAT’S NEXT?
2016 holiday toys – what to expect
Out with the old, in with the preowned
Toy makers blur the lines between boys and girls toys
Interactive arts and crafts
Figure 25: Introducing Osmo Creative Set featuring Monster

THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kids under 12 have all the fun
Toys are purchased with others in mind
Amazon fast on the heels of mass merchandisers
It may be educational, but is it fun?
Kids are the primary influencer
A place for gendered, and gender-neutral toys

TYPES OF TOYS PURCHASED
Younger children are the most likely toy recipients
Figure 26: Toy purchases, September 2016
Arts appeal to all
Figure 27: Types of toys purchased, September 2016
Board games buoyed by other gaming methods
Figure 28: Types of toys purchased – for children, for adults, September 2016
One toy for you, one toy for dad
Figure 29: Purchase of any toy for myself, by key demographics, September 2016

PURCHASE MOTIVATIONS
The gifts that keep on giving
Figure 30: Reasons for purchase, September 2016
Dad shows pride with a purchase
Figure 31: Reasons for purchase – select items, by moms and dads, September 2016
Older adults buy mainly as gifts
Figure 32: Reasons for purchase – select items, by age, September 2016
Those who have more, are able to give more
Figure 33: Reasons for purchase – toy drive, by household income, September 2016
Figure 34: Toys for Tots promotion, Toys “R” Us, October 2016
Parents want to reward kids of all ages
Figure 35: Reasons for purchase – rewards, by age of child, September 2016

RETAILERS SHOPPED
Mass merchandisers have something for everyone
Low prices encourage impulse purchases
Catalogs get revamped
Figure 36: Retailers shopped, September 2016
Moms the most likely to shop mass merchandisers
Figure 37: Retailers shopped, by parental status, September 2016
Amazon is winning over prime parent demographic
Figure 38: Retailers shopped, by age of child, September 2016
Hispanic shoppers purchase across retail channels
Figure 39: Retailers shopped – select retailers, by Hispanic origin, September 2016

TOY EXPECTATIONS
Kids just wanna have fun
Figure 40: Expectations for kids toys, September 2016
Balancing fun and learning
Parents invest in peace and quiet
Figure 41: Expectations for kids toys – select items, by parental status, September 2016
Creative and educational toys appeal to female shoppers
Figure 42: Expectations for kids toys – select items, by gender, September 2016
Toys bring adults joy and human connection
Figure 43: Expectations for adults toys, September 2016

SOURCES OF INFLUENCE
Children’s opinions weigh heavily on toy decisions
Figure 44: Sources of influence, September 2016
Online product reviews more impactful for young shoppers
Figure 45: Sources of influence – online reviews, by age, September 2016
Moms go straight to the source – their kids
Figure 46: Sources of influence – input from children and recommendations from friends and family, by parental status, September 2016
Hispanic shoppers consider purchase logistics
Figure 47: Sources of influence – select items, by Hispanic origin, September 2016

ATTITUDES TOWARD TOYS AND GAMES
Parents split on gender neutrality
Toy selection is best left to the experts (kids)
Traditional toys chosen for child development
Figure 48: Attitudes toward toys and games – part 1, September 2016
Watch out, kids. We’re coming for your toys.
Characters welcome
Some kids are easy to please
Figure 49: Attitudes toward toys and games – part 2, September 2016
Young shoppers seek out gender neutral toys
Figure 50: Attitudes toward toys and games – gender neutral toys, by gender, age, September 2016
Women find value in traditional toys
Figure 51: Attitudes toward toys and games – views on traditional toys, by select demographics, September 2016
Women are game-night champions
Figure 52: Attitudes toward toys and games – views on toys for adults, by select demographics, September 2016

APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations

APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 53: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-16
Figure 54: Distribution of dollar sales of toys and games, by type, 2013 and 2015
Figure 55: Doll ownership, May 2005-June 2016
Figure 56: Doll ownership, by type, April 2011-June 2016
Figure 57: Toy gun ownership, May 2006-June 2016
Figure 58: Use of video games, May 2006-June 2016

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